Virginia’s Republican Party has some soul-searching to do. After a 2024 cycle that left national Republicans flush with cash, every congressional district in the commonwealth still moved left relative to 2024, according to preliminary comparisons drawn from Virginia Public Access Project data and compiled by Virginia Scope.
Two seats flipped. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor defeated longtime Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st District, about 51.0% to 48.7% in unofficial returns reported after the Associated Press called the race. In the 2nd, former Rep. Elaine Luria took the seat back from Rep. Jen Kiggans, about 53.1% to 44.6%. In the 5th, Rep. John McGuire appears to have held on, about 50.2% to 48.0% over former Rep. Tom Perriello, a bright spot on an otherwise bruising night for Virginia Republicans.
Watch the full breakdown:
The Virginia Insider host walks the maps: Richmond-suburb margins weighing down VA-01, Virginia Beach and Suffolk helping Luria in VA-02, and a continued leftward creep into places Republicans once treated as safe, including parts of Frederick, Clarke, Roanoke, Culpeper, Spotsylvania, and King George. Even districts that stayed Republican — including Ben Cline’s 6th and Morgan Griffith’s 9th — posted sizable Democratic shifts versus 2024.
Virginia Scope’s district-by-district table, using VPAP figures, shows Democratic share gains in all 11 districts. The largest reported swings include roughly 9.5 points in the 6th and about 9.3 points in the 10th. In the 5th, Perriello closed what had been a double-digit Republican cushion in 2024 to a two-point race, helped by strong showings in university-adjacent localities the host flags as targets of aggressive registration work.
The host argues Democrats treated Virginia as a Petri dish: register voters on campuses and in growing suburbs, then export the playbook. He points to earlier reporting on a University of Mary Washington registration table that handed out candidate lists — an episode the college and local elections officials treated as allowed — as a template for what conservatives should expect elsewhere.
Results remain unofficial until the Virginia Board of Elections certifies them. Conservatives still have numerical strength in many counties, but the margins are eroding. The work now, the host says, is in churches, communities, and the middle of the electorate — not waiting for the next cycle to save itself. Sign up for the free email newsletter at VirginiaInsider.com.
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