A new poll from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center gives Democrat Elaine Luria a three-point edge over Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. Luria leads 46 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, with 10 percent undecided. The result falls inside the survey’s plus-or-minus four-point margin of error.
The rematch is one of the most closely watched House races in the country. Kiggans defeated Luria in 2022. Both candidates draw strong support from their own parties, and independents favor Luria 45 percent to 38 percent. Women prefer Luria by a wide margin while men back Kiggans.
Cost of living ranks as the top issue for voters in the district. President Trump’s job approval stands at 33 percent approve and 62 percent disapprove among likely voters there. In the same survey, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner leads Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa 51 percent to 37 percent.
At the same time, the Republican National Committee is transferring more than $50 million to its House and Senate campaign committees. The RNC entered September with $126 million on hand. The cash infusion is larger than previous cycles and gives Republicans a financial advantage Democrats cannot currently match. A recent Supreme Court decision expanded the ability of party committees to coordinate spending with candidates.
Separately, a national polling firm called Wedgewood Polls admitted that the vast majority of its 2026 surveys were fabricated. The firm said it conducted the exercise as a “social experiment” to show how easily unverified numbers could be picked up by major media outlets and poll aggregators, including the New York Times. After being confronted by the site FiftyPlusOne, Wedgewood issued a statement saying it was “far too easy.” The New York Times has since removed the firm’s polls from its tracking. This is the second such admission in recent months, following a similar case involving Median Strategies in August.
Virginia Insider host Uriah Kiser notes that voters are repeatedly told Democrats hold clear leads across multiple races, including the 2nd District, while Republicans hold a substantial cash edge heading into the final weeks. The combination of a poll inside the margin of error, record Republican spending, and the exposure of fabricated surveys raises questions about which signals are most reliable.
Election Day is November 3. Early voting is already underway in the district.
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