Polls and Predictions Aim to Keep Virginia Conservatives Home on Election Day, Daily Signal Argues

With Election Day at hand, a Daily Signal commentary by Joe Thomas argues that polls and predictions are working to keep Virginia conservatives home.

Thomas points to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the forecast published by the UVA Center for Politics, which moved Virginia’s 5th Congressional District to a toss-up. The district is considered R+12, meaning Republican candidates usually win there by about 12 points.

Larry Sabato earned the “Crystal Ball” nickname in the 2002 midterms, when he correctly predicted the outcome of 433 of 435 House races and 32 of 34 Senate races.

The 5th District is held by Republican Rep. John McGuire, who faces Democrat Tom Perriello. It is the only Virginia House race where the Democratic candidate has more money than the Republican, and that money is funding a media blitz against McGuire.

One of the ads claims McGuire supports child marriage. McGuire told the Daily Signal the claim is false.

“It’s really sick,” McGuire said. “He tried to say that I’m the only one that voted no, but 42 other Republicans voted no as well. And basically, what it did was it raised the age of marriage to 18 in Virginia. There’s no problem with that. But I wanted to make an exception for our military.”

McGuire said a person can join the military at 17 and die for the country, and if a service member dies in combat, a fiancée who could not legally marry him would not receive benefits.

Thomas cites a Cambridge University Press study of 2014 U.S. Senate races, titled “The Mobilizing and Demobilizing Effects of TV Political Ads.” It concluded that “when the campaigns degenerate into unsubstantiated and shrill attacks, voters tend to stay home.”

Research by Marquette University over several election cycles in Wisconsin shows that higher turnout favors Republicans and lower turnout favors Democrats.

Thomas also points to Wedgewood Polls, which acknowledged last week that the vast majority of the polling it released on Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary was not supported by genuine survey data. The firm called it an “experimental project intended to demonstrate weaknesses in the polling industry.”

Democratic candidate Mallory McMorrow posted on X that the fabricated results killed her campaign. The polls had shown her as a distant third in the primary and the weakest of the three leading Democrats against Republican Mike Rogers.

Thomas also cites Split Ticket analysis putting Sabato’s Crystal Ball accuracy at 60% to 65% in its “leans” and “likely” categories. Applying those rates to the House seats currently rated lean or likely Democratic produces a total short of a majority, he argues.

His conclusion is that polling and predictions are a game designed to keep conservatives home. He argues Republicans need voters who backed Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and Donald Trump in 2024 to turn out.

On Virginia Insider, Uriah Kiser read through the commentary. He noted that this year’s gerrymandering push, the August primaries and 45-day early voting periods have added up to nearly 170 days of voting in Virginia.

Kiser urged viewers to vote in person and to get friends, family, coworkers and church members to the polls. “There are more of us than they would have you believe,” he said.

Polls are open Tuesday, Nov. 3, from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Bring a valid photo ID.

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